It was just a few years ago — back in 2019 — that the NBA changed its lottery system for the draft, giving the three worst teams even chances to grab the No. 1 overall pick and a shot at turning around a floundering franchise, to dissuade tanking.
Three teams got 14 percent shots at the top pick. Other teams near the top got decent shots (12.5 percent for the fourth-worst team, 10.5 percent for No. 5 and so on). It used to be that the worst team got a whopping 25 percent shot, with No. 2 getting 19.9 percent and the third-worst team got a 15.6 percent chance.
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But it’s clear after the 2025 NBA Draft lottery in which the Dallas Mavericks — who made one of the worst trades in pro sports history! — won the chance to get Duke’s Cooper Flagg that something is broken. When everyone’s putting on their tin foil hats and spouting conspiracy theories, it’s all wrong.
Think about the NFL for a moment, a league in which it’s harder to tank because you’ll lose the locker room as a head coach. The worst teams get top picks and can take that quarterback of the future to restart their franchise.
In what world is it good for the NBA when the Mavs can get a potential generational player? Or a world in which the hapless Washington Wizards finish outside the top-five picks and can’t necessarily get one of the other potential stars in this draft?
What about the Utah Jazz and other teams that aren’t necessarily prime free-agent stops for stars? The strategy is to nail your top picks and to then make one of those franchise-changing trades in the hopes that you’ll compete. If not? You’re stuck in a perpetual cycle of struggle, and that’s not good for the league’s health overall.
But when a team like the Mavs had a 1.8 percent chance at the top pick or the Atlanta Hawks had a 3 percent chance in 2024? When the teams with the worst record in the NBA haven’t won the lottery since 2019? And when those teams have fallen to No. 5 for three straight years?
That’s a broken system.
The NBA has actually gone SO anti-tanking that it’s too much. No, you shouldn’t reward tanking. But you do need to help the worst teams in smaller markets get better for competitive balance and for fans to buy tickets.
What’s the solution here? Get rid of the draft lottery and straight up give the top picks to the worst teams like the NFL? No. The blatant tanking is bad for the NBA.
But there’s got to be a better way.